March 2010 Archives

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The American media is in combative mood: A year and a half after Lehman's collapse, the pundits are finally waking up to the fact that China bears a significant share of the blame for the current financial crisis. And so, the Krugmans of this world are calling for the US government to 'punish' China through a variety of protectionist measures. 

I have been writing about China's role in creating the current crisis for a long time. And still, I think it is wrong to blame China for America's pains - namely, a collapsing credit bubble, rising unemployment, and a ballooning government debt. 

Yes, the Chinese are manipulating their currency. By doing so, they make it easier for Americans to buy Chinese goods for less and make it harder for Chinese citizens to increase their purchasing power. They are also making it more difficult for Chinese companies to move up in the global supply chain and produce better, more innovative products for higher prices. China's currency manipulation, on its own, damages no one other than the Chinese people. 

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'There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.'
The above quote from Ludwig von Mises's Human Action (1949) pretty much sums up where we are and where we're headed. There are two ways out of this mess: Allowing bad banks and bad companies to go bankrupt and take some pain in the short term; or bail them out through government "creation" of more money and cheap credit.  Looks like the world has opted for the second option. 

This means we will experience a period of illusionary recovery, mostly in real estate prices and equity markets, powered by the huge amount of new money created by government(s). This illusionary recovery can last anywhere between 6 months to 10 years - depending on the amount of money being printed and on external triggers - but will eventually come to a painful stop, when all governments are deeply in debt and there's no one left to bail them out. 

Once we reach that point, governments are most likely to choose the only way out that allows them to divert public attention from their failure and get everyone to work together towards a common goal -  war. Until then, enjoy the ride. 
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Note: The views and observations expressed on this web site are published for the sake of public discussion and do not represent my personal opinion or the opinion of my companies, clients, and/or employers. If you would like to get my opinion on anything, ask me.

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